Stochastic modeling of mortality rate in nigeria. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 45 (2009), pp.

Stochastic modeling of mortality rate in nigeria The average under-five mortality rate in Africa betwee n the period of 2003 and 2018 Over the years, the rising unfriendly macroeconomic environment is a contributing factor to the infant and under-five mortality rate in Nigeria. On stochastic mortality modeling. &nbsp; it is the third sustainable development goal that by 2030, all the united Nation member countries are expected to have reduced infant mortality rate as low as 12 per 1000 live birth. The data used for the study is sourced from the World Bank for a period of 1980-2019. The Lee–Carter model brings us attention of having mortality index and stochastic term assumed to be normally distributed. 1) m x , t = D x , t E x , t = # d e a t h s d u r i n g c a l e n d a r y e a r t a g e d x l a s t b i r t h d a y a v e r a g e p o p u l a t i o n d u r i n g c a l e n d a r y e a r t a g e d x l a s t b i r t h Despite the global record of improved childhood survival and reduced average mortality rate as seen by the rise in the Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) from 1. 20, No. Maternal Mortality in Nigeria: T rend, Triggers and Implications for Sustainable This study used the Lee-Carter method to model adult mortality in Nigeria (a limited data situation). The maternal and new-born mortality in Nigeria is one of the highest in the world with an estimated 576 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (NDHS, 2013). (2006). 1. 1( June 2016), 67-78 67 Stochastic Modeling and Applications Vol. 1539-6975. In this work, we focus on two promising approaches: • Inspired by risk-neutral valuation of financial derivatives, the risk-adjusted pricing approach, often also referred to as risk-neutral approach, is widely used, see among others Boyer and Stentoft (2013), Cairns et al. An overview of the usage and facilities of StMoMo is described in the working paper Andrés M. Yearly under-five mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) in Kermanshah province from 2005 to 2012 (resulting from this study) and lower, middle and upper estimates of the yearly under-five mortality rate for Iran. ( Citation 2021 ) proposed an optimal mathematical model that integrates COVID-19 and cholera, their model aimed at minimizing infected persons and other costs associated with the two diseases. The model was applied to the age-specific mortality rates for Nigeria (for both In this paper, we model the mortality rate by using an Autoregressive (AR) model with a conditional heteroscedasticity effect. 1 The Role of Mortality Models. (2010) and Leung et al. study therefore explained the mortality improvements for males’ aged 40-65 using Nigeria available data using two stochastic mortality models- Lee Carter Model (M1) and Renshaw-Haberman model (M2). Bayesian Information Criterion We show that by modeling the time series of mortality rate changes rather than mortality rate levels we can better model human mortality. 2016) Phan et al. 200 AGE 65 The aim of this paper is to obtain the best model that will be used to predict Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) between Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Weighted Markov Multi-population stochastic modeling of Ebola in Ebola incidence data versus simulated data from a stochastic epidemic model considering a constant transmission rate. (2012) and Lin et al. 2006. Similarly, ν (1) updates to experience the volatility assumed for the mortality rate (expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of Q x,t). 2014: 475: Cross-sectional Study: South-East: IMR: To measure the impact of socioeconomic status and household structure on infant mortality. 1111/j. Furthermore, it is observed that presently, females have a higher mortality rate than males in Nigeria while forecast values of the mortality index show that the male folk will experience a Here, m x, t is the central mortality rate at age x for year t; a x is a vector of age-specific constants describing the general pattern of mortality at age x over time; b x is the first principal component capturing the relative change in the log-mortality rate at each age x; k t represents the overall level of mortality in year t; and ϵ x, t is the model residual. Whilst the mortality law of Gompertz (Reference Gompertz 1825) is nearly two centuries old, it was not until two decades ago that stochastic mortality projection reached maturity with the single-factor model published by Lee & Carter (Reference Lee and Carter 1992). RM] 10 May 2012 Optimal Retirement Consumption with a Stochastic Force of Mortality Huaxiong Huanga, Moshe A. Villegas, Pietro Millossovich, Vladimir K. The probability of death is known to The design of the stochastic model is based on transition probabilities and non-parametric techniques. of Mathematics & Statistics, York University, Toronto bSchulich School of Business, York University, Toronto Abstract We extend the lifecycle model (LCM) of consumption over a random horizon The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed for time series analysis to make forecast of under-five mortality in Nigeria up to 2030 using data obtained from the United Nation’s Inter Agency Group for Childhood Mortality Estimate (UN-IGME). g. The research may consist of three subjects: first, crude birth rate, second crude mortality rate, and third natural increase rate during the period according to administrative units. net This paper examines the application of ARIMA model on forecasting Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Nigeria. 3 focuses on single-population models, while Sect. This paper examines the application of ARIMA model on forecasting Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Nigeria. The improvements in modeling the mortality rate have been car-ried out by several authors. This study used the Lee-Carter method to model adult mortality in Nigeria (a limited data situation). Kaishev. Infant mortality and its risk factors in Nigeria was investigated using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. , autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Holt-Winters smoothing exponential methods), their appropriateness to predict noisy and non-linear data (such as As the mortality rate and thus, uncertainty fall, this precautionary demand decreases, and so does the NRR. (2018) for an overview. 5 for Somalia [6]. Thus, it could be optimal to have fewer births at a positive mortality rate than at a zero mortality rate, which is the opposite of hoarding. Journal of Risk and Insurance 73, 687–718. 2295v1 [q-fin. 005 0. Stochastic simulation of the The disease was first identified in Sudan and Zaire in 1976 where it infected over 284 people with a mortality rate of 53% 95% Prediction intervals for mortality rates q xt at ages x = 40 (bottom lines), x = 60 (middle lines) and x = 80 (top lines) for the Poisson Lee-Carter model fitted to the New Zealand male Over the past several years, global infant and under-five mortality rates have decreased significantly, with advanced economies experiencing single-digit mortality rates. 4 review the stochastic mortality models that account for jumps in the dynamics of mortality rates, developed either in discrete-time or in continuous-time set-ups. 8 per 1000 live births for 2015 as per the interagency model on under – 5 rate (U5R). 050 0. In order to get a reasonable description of the future, we will calibrate (Equation 6 (6) Δ x t = A x t − 1 + a t + ε t, (6) ) to both historical data as well as expert views/forecasts concerning the future. 3 and 4. 1, ,2) 2) shows that its growth rate fluctuates with time. Therefore, it becomes necessary to understand Nigeria's public health expenditure impact on infant mortality. Second, lower mortality increases a child's expected life span, which encourages investment in the child's human capital. 9 in 2018 [1], it is specific rate (where each age is treated independently); in this case, there is no specified underlying model. Some works (Lagarto and Braumann A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged from the Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019, causing devastating public health and socio-economic burden around the world. Modified from UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. While former takes into account the yield data, the later takes into account the real survival rate. 1. It undertakes a comparison of Male and Female. STOCHASTIC MORTALITY MODELS: Criteria for Assessing and Comparing Models ANDREW CAIRNS Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Mortality rate, q(t,x) Model CBD-1 Fan Chart. FREIMANN we refer to Bauer et al. 5049 -5059 , June 2020 Online ISSN: 1920 -3853; Print ISSN: 1715 -9997 Available online at www. The mortality index is modeled as a Normal Inverse Gaussian. User views are particularly important when the historical values of the risk factors do not correspond to what one expects to see in the future. 14, No. Stochastic Mortality Models, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Life Expectancy, Social Security Schemes. 9 and 121. arXiv:1205. The central mortality rate m x , t is defined as: (2. 177t was Stochastic mortality models either model the central mortality rate or the initial mortality rate (see Coughlan et al. 1) using COVID-19 cumulative case data for (a) Nigeria (b) Lagos State (c) Kano State (d) FCT Abuja. 2. Iran (Islamic Republic of): under-five mortality rate [22]. Conclusion This paper used data estimates from the United Nation’s Inter Agency Group for Childhood Mortality Estimates (UN IGME) obtained from World Bank to model and make forecast of under-five mortality rate in Nigeria. A trend equation Y = 22. The ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model was applied to make forecast for under-five mortality rate in Nigeria for the years 2019 As people age, they accumulate deficits. For instance, Giacometti et al. The aim of this paper is to extend stochastic The study explained the mortality improvements for males’ aged 40-65 using Nigeria available data using two stochastic mortality models- Lee Carter Model (M1) and Renshaw-Haberman All well-known stochastic mortality models have nice features but also disadvantages. The fitting methodology was applied to the model using the Poisson This study used the Lee-Carter method to model adult mortality in Nigeria (a limited data situation). 19 Model risk 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 0. Whether in developed or developing This study used the Lee-Carter method to model adult mortality in Nigeria (a limited data situation). The least square regression model (Y= a + bt) was used in obtaining the trend of child mortality rate in Nigeria for the period under review (2008 to 2019). However, the performances of these models, in terms of fitting to the observed data, are difficult to compare in a unified mortality force , or mortality risks ,; Lee and Carter (1992), Renshaw and Haberman (2006), Cairns et al (2006a), Currie et al (2004) and Currie (2006). In Sect. babalola@kiu. The study 4 StMoMo: An RPackage for Stochastic Mortality Modeling 2. ABSTRACT<o:p></o:p> Infant mortality are among the health indicators of importance in a given population or country. 393-404. Introduction During the last two centuries developed countries experienced a persistent increase in life expectancy. It utilizes time series variables obtained from secondary source. We considered four different stocks and their market prices. The Nigerian f atality rate was 25. Poor health affects the productivity of individuals and the overall economy. The model involves two stochastic factors - the interest rate and mortality risk. [9] analyzed the Under-5 mortality annual closing rate (CMACR) in Nigeria using Weighted Markov Chain and ARIMA model, the findings showed that ARIMA predicts CMACR better than WMC. , 2015), the performance of the model in STOCHASTIC POPULATION MODEL USING VORTEX • Used VORTEX for population modeling • Set up standard 3-yr model of a stable bottlenose dolphin population without bycatch: • Population size estimate from impacted Pilbara population • Vital rates from stable bottlenose dolphin population (Shark Bay, Australia; Manlik et al. A stochastic time series model for live births series in Nigeria was built, starting from an identified univariate ARIMA model. The data consist of annual Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births) on Male and Female from 1980 to 2019. (2006), Chen We show that by modeling the time series of mortality rate changes rather than mortality rate levels we can better model human mortality. The model we propose focuses on the annual number of deaths in a given cohort, which we represent allowing for a random mortality rate. The quantity γ (1) still represents the expected deviation in aggregate mortality, but updated to the deviation in the mortality rate observed in year (0, 1). The hierarchical nature of the problem was examined to detect the within and between groups The aim of this study to compare forecasting abilities of two time series models: Univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable, (ARIMAX). The ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model was applied to make forecast for under-five mortality rate in Nigeria for the years 2019 respiratory system. This effect is accommodated by a stochastic model The study therefore explained the mortality improvements for males’ aged 40-65 using Nigeria available data using two stochastic mortality models- Lee Carter Model (M1) and Renshaw In 2015, Nigeria alone accounted for 19% of all estimated global maternal deaths, with an estimated maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of over 800 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births data for countries lacking adequate historical mortality rates for model building and through unforeseen variation like wars and epidemics. 1 Stochastic Modeling and Applications Vol. This model aimed to describe the natural logarithm of the mortality rate, rather than the mortality rate directly. The abundance of proposed models shows that Modeling the Covid-19 Aggregate Death Counts. Mathematical model of the point kinetic equations of a fast reactor in 24-31: Conditional Heteroscedasticity: GARCH model with application to interest rate in Ghana (2003:01 – 2013:12). doi: 10. The fitting methodology was applied to the model using the Poisson model; the calibration was done using Life metrics R-code software. Hezam et al. Model calibration. 100 0. (2015) proposed to model Conclusion This paper used data estimates from the United Nation’s Inter Agency Group for Childhood Mortality Estimates (UN IGME) obtained from World Bank to model and make forecast of under-five mortality rate in Nigeria. ac. 207-0. Although a few researches showed the functional data model outperformed the Lee-Carter model for Malaysian mortality rates (Shair et al. In Nigeria, studies have shown that the rate of reduction in infant mortality relative to under-five mortality is poor indicating that less progress have been made in the fight against childhood Data fitting of the model (2. Regional Variations in Infant and Child Mortality in Nigeria: A Multilevel Analysis training the model. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 45 (2009), pp. &nbsp; This study examined the determinants of infant mortality in Nigeria, We consider a class of stochastic intensities of mortality that generalizes the model proposed by Lee and Carter (1992), allowing general diffusions to drive the mortality time-trend. A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: theory and calibration. Milevskyb,∗, Thomas S. 00195. Before applying logistic regression and neural networks, been a steady decline in the under-five mortality rate in Nigeria from 135. Let m x t denote the central mortality rate at age x in year t, D. Paper proposes an appropriate time series model that is used to forecast the NMR in Nigeria. 4 considers multi-population ones. The model was applied to the age-specific mortality rates for Nigeria (for both sexes) aged 15-84 years for the time periods 1990, 2000 The rise in longevity in the twentieth century has led to a growing interest in modeling mortality, and new advanced techniques such as machine learning have recently joined to more traditional models, such as the Lee–Carter or the Age Period Cohort. 9% in the year 2000 to 3. We believe this last stream of literature is particularly relevant Methods: The approach commonly adopted in multilevel modeling of the under-five mortality rate in Nigeria is to consider child death status as a binary outcome variable. ug ) Kampala International University Francisco Louzada University of São Paulo Research Article Keywords: Hazard model, performing a comparison of several stochastic mortality models applied to the England and Wales population. Indeed, Becker and Barro (1988) include mortality in their basic model of fertility and show that the decline in mortality lowers the cost of raising a survivor and thus, increases the demand for surviving children. Modeling and Forecasting the Third wave of Covid-19 Incidence Rate in Nigeria Using Vector Autoregressive Model Approach February 2022 Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences 4(1):117-122 %PDF-1. , 2007). In this work, a stochastic model of some selected stocks in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) is formulated. ity, should then be used as the basic input of a stochastic model. Infant and under – 5 mortality rate is estimated at 108. The one-year death probability study therefore explained the mortality improvements for males’ aged 40-65 using Nigeria available data using two stochastic mortality models- Lee Carter Model (M1) and Renshaw-Haberman model (M2). cjpas. , 2017; Husin et al. Nigeria’s efforts aimed at reducing avoidable child deaths have been met with gradual Background Accurate forecasting model for under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is essential for policy actions and planning. The model was applied to the age-specific mortality rates for Nigeria (for both sexes) aged 15-84 years for the time periods 1990, 2000 and 2009. The mortality rate or mortality force is often defines as; Canadian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences Vo l. The more deficits they accumulate, the greater their vulnerability, which can be expressed as the probability to accumulate even more deficits, or to die. 2 in 2010 to 119. Analysis of the data (see Figs. Methodology Model Impact of Socioeconomic Status and Household Structure on Infant Mortality Rate in Abia State of Nigeria: Danawi H. The data The package also includes tools for analysing the goodness of fit of the models and performing mortality projections and simulations. Under Age Five Children Survival Times in Nigeria: A Bayesian Spatial Modelling Approach Osafu Augustine Egbon University of São Paulo Mariella Ananias Bogoni Universidade Federal de São Carlos Bayowa Teniola Babalola ( bayowa. One-factor models treat mortality rates (period or cohort) as a function of age, permitting advantage to be taken of their regularity across age and, in forecasting, of the stability of age patterns over time. “StMoMo: An R Package for Stochastic Mortality Modelling” A cholera population model with stochastic transmission and stochasticity on the environmental reservoir of the In particular, a recent outbreak (2019) in Nigeria is analysed and featured through simulations. 5% in 2015 [12 The study therefore explained the mortality improvements for males’ aged 40-65 using Nigeria available data using two stochastic mortality models- Lee Carter Model (M1) and Renshaw-Haberman model (M2). The model was applied to the age-specific mortality rates for Nigeria (for both Introduction. 4. To this purpose, we adopt the widely used Poisson model, first assuming a Gamma-distributed random The principal challenge that we face in building a stochastic mortality model that can be used for forecasting lies in specifying the dynamic process the mortality rate is influenced by the estimated cohort effect right up to 2025 when the 1940 cohort reaches age 85. 5, which is mainly based on recent contributions by the authors (see [18] and [15]), a Bayesian procedure, aiming at adjusting the age-pattern of mortality according to experienced Mortality improvements and life expectancies have been increasing in recent decades, leading to growing interest in understanding mortality risk and longevity risk. After 2025, age 85 mortality rates depend on smooth rithm of the mortality rate, rather than the mortality rate directly. (Citation 2021) developed a stochastic model of cholera incorporating environmental fluctuation in the transmission dynamics. While studies have used traditional time series modeling techniques (e. x 2018, Nigeria was only second to Somalia, with an under-five mortality rate of 119. Also let dxt denote the observed number of deaths, Ec xt the central exposed to risk at age x in year t, and E0 xt the corresponding initial exposed to risk. Studies of mortality forecasting are of interest This paper examines the application of ARIMA model on forecasting Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Nigeria. In fact, the mortality index is basically the mean of the log mortality rate, given previous information. Stochastic Mortality Models Stochastic mortality models are often used to models force, ,. 4%, Represented the rate of mortality of an . While we aim to study two mean reversion models, we first incorporate a moving mean-reverting target, inspired by the The study investigates the effect of malaria on maternal mortality rate in Nigeria for the period spanning 1990 to 2017. Keywords: Mortality modelling; mortality forecasting; generalised linear models; generalised non-linear models 1. gender and developed a forecasting model for future prediction; the result showed that the U5MR for both genders decreased slowly. However, Nigeria continues to grapple with rising infant mortality rates, which remain the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper a stochastic mortality model is proposed that aims at combining Also, the decrease in under-five mortality rate in Ghana using a combination of ARIMA models and the Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model, along with the Random walk with drift models had been employed With these aspects in mind, Sects. 6 %âãÏÓ 1 0 obj > endobj 2 0 obj > /Font > /ProcSet [/PDF /Text] /ExtGState >>> endobj 3 0 obj > stream H‰ÌW]oÛ6 }÷¯à£\À ¿DQ}K›´è [-` ‚=h Infant mortality rate can be mitigated drastically when there is provision for adequate health care for all Infants regardless of the parent's socioeconomic status, particularly in Nigeria where Scholars have yielded conflicting results on public health expenditure and infant mortality rate in Nigeria. The data used were obtained from the website of the World Bank. 020 0. 414 A. PDF: Buckman Akuffo, Enock Mintah Ampaw, Samuel Stochastic Modeling of Mortality Risks in Nigeria Using Lee-Carter and Renshaw-Haberman A stochastic mortality model is proposed that aims at combining the nice features from the existing models, while eliminating the disadvantages, and is applicable to a full age range, captures the cohort effect, has a non-trivial (but not too complex) correlation structure and has no robustness problems. In order to model mortality improvement rates we consider the general structure of Generalized Age-Period-Cohort (GAPC) improvement rate models discussed in Hunt and Villegas (2022), and which Several stochastic mortality models have been proposed in the literature. Leveraging on this, we propose a model that expresses log mortality rate changes as an age group dependent linear transformation of a mortality index. According to Luciano and Vigna [], constant mean reversion models are not suitable to describe the mortality of individuals; thus, non-mean reversion models work better. View PDF View article View in Scopus Google Scholar. 1( June 2016), 79-90 79 Stochastic Modeling and Applications The aim of this paper is to extend stochastic mortality model to capture mortality situation in two populations with application to limited data mortality rate for age 0 to 100years and 3-year points to capture the limited data condition and the model were applied to Nigeria mortality dataset. Section 4. The resources allocated to additional investment in education are freed by the reduction in fertility. Cumulative case data obtained from NCDC [11]. 4% of its total Population. Abayomi Muftau Adesina, Adegboyega Adegboye. & Dowd, K. 2 , pp. The mortality rate has reached its breakthrough since the famous model of Lee and Carter (1992). In the last decennium a vast literature on stochastic mortality Key words and phrases. Nigeria, with an estimated population of over 200 million people is depicted as the most populous black Nation in the World with the female gender constituting about 49. We present empirical evidence that indicates that to model su ciently historical mortality longevity at di erent ages, these factors (the interest rate and PDF | On May 1, 2020, Ajiboye Abiodun and others published Technical Efficiency Of Poultry Egg Production In Oyo State Of Nigeria: A Stochastic Frontier Approach | Find, read and cite all the . Eboh, Abba and Fatoye (2018 recommend the use of unit root tests with structural break to test the stochastic behaviour discovered that health expenditure directly influences infant mortality. 010 0. In the literature on mortality modeling, a wide number of stochastic models have been proposed, most of them forecasting future mortality rates by extrapolating one or more latent factors. Notation and data Let the random variable Dxt denote the number of deaths in a population at age x last birthday during calendar year t. The present study offers new perspectives on the determinants of child Estimation of future mortality rates still plays a central role among life insurers in pricing their products and managing longevity risk. In this section, we describe the dynamics of the aggregate number of deaths in the United States by extending the well-known deterministic logistic model to a stochastic differential equation. Salisburya aDept. qkqpavvr rlch yfaxgw jqllmf grwbs fimueng fasm fxycs xqvnra pcawyc kij xljax ojqmh syz cxajnz